The true, exit-adjusted expected value of every Collector Crypt pack — the venue behind Jupiter Gacha. Updated 2026-07-14 20:20 UTC.
All 11 machines advertise a positive expected value — they quote an EV above the pack price. But the only guaranteed way out is Collector Crypt's own instant buyback, which pays 85–93% of the card's value, and auto-sells your card into that offer on a Common pull. Price that exit in and the sign flips on all of them: from -5.0% (Grail Pokémon Gacha Pack) down to -9.0% (Starter Pokémon Gacha Pack). The Pokémon packs Jupiter is marketing hardest sit near the bottom of that range.
| Machine | Pack price | Advertised EV | Buyback | True EV | True edge | Pool | Dry in | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grail Pokémon Gacha Pack
Pokemon
|
$1,000 | $1,021.43 +2.1% | 93% | $949.93 | -5.0% | 1,475 | 1,013 Common runs out | 20× |
|
One Piece Emperor Pack
One Piece
|
$1,000 | $1,018.36 +1.8% | 93% | $947.08 | -5.3% | 1,301 | 601 Common runs out | 20× |
|
One Piece Gacha Pack
One Piece
|
$250 | $262.34 +4.9% | 90% | $236.11 | -5.6% | 3,156 | 1,132 Common runs out | 5× |
|
Legendary Pokémon Gacha Pack
Pokemon
|
$250 | $262.32 +4.9% | 90% | $236.08 | -5.6% | 4,348 | 763 Common runs out | 5× |
|
Mythic Pokémon Gacha Pack
Pokemon
|
$2,500 | $2,535.35 +1.4% | 93% | $2,357.88 | -5.7% | 960 | 563 Common runs out | 50× |
|
Water Pack
Pokemon
|
$100 | $104.62 +4.6% | 90% | $94.15 | -5.8% | 336 | 91 Common runs out | 2× |
|
Sports Gacha Pack
Sports
|
$100 | $104.51 +4.5% | 90% | $94.06 | -5.9% | 1,350 | 143 Common runs out | 2× |
|
Anime Pop Culture Gacha
Anime
|
$75 | $82.38 +9.8% | 85% | $70.02 | -6.6% | 3,729 | 502 Common runs out | 1.5× |
|
Elite Pokémon Gacha Pack
Pokemon
|
$50 | $54.37 +8.7% | 85% | $46.22 | -7.6% | 4,760 | 64 Common runs out | 1× |
|
One Piece Ocean Blue Pack
One Piece
|
$50 | $54.36 +8.7% | 85% | $46.21 | -7.6% | 2,812 | 30 Common runs out | 1× |
|
Starter Pokémon Gacha Pack
Pokemon
|
$25 | $26.77 +7.1% | 85% | $22.76 | -9.0% | 3,451 | 65 Common runs out | 0.5× |
These are flagged public in Collector Crypt's API and hold real stock, but they do not appear in the pack chooser on gacha.collectorcrypt.com — and nothing in either API distinguishes them from the ones that do. We cannot confirm they are pullable, so they are not ranked above. They are listed here only because several of them price as positive-edge, which is worth knowing if you can reach them.
| Machine | Pack price | Advertised EV | Buyback | True EV | True edge | Pool | Dry in | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Football Gacha Pack
Football
|
$50 | $66.40 +32.8% | 85% | $56.44 | +12.9% | 518 | 41 Common runs out | 1× |
|
Basketball Gacha Pack
Basketball
|
$50 | $66.38 +32.8% | 85% | $56.42 | +12.8% | 347 | 28 Common runs out | 1× |
|
Baseball Gacha Pack
Baseball
|
$50 | $63.57 +27.1% | 85% | $54.04 | +8.1% | 438 | 31 Common runs out | 1× |
|
Sealed Gacha Pack
Sealed
|
$80 | $87.99 +10.0% | 90% | $79.19 | -1.0% | 181 | 5 Common runs out | 1.6× |
Collector Crypt publishes an ev for each machine: the rarity-weighted expected
insured value of the card you pull, comped from ALT and eBay sales. They also publish
instantBuyback — the share of that insured value they will pay to take the card
straight back off you. So the expected cash you clear per pull, and the edge against the pack price, are:
Nothing here is scraped or estimated — every input is a number Collector Crypt publishes. They simply never multiply the two together.
CrepeToast